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Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Salernitana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Salernitana 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.06 xG and Salernitana 0.62 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.37 / defence 0.90 against Salernitana attack 0.63 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 69% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 8%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights