Pisa 3-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pisa, 1 for Palermo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 46% versus Palermo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.32 xG and Palermo 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.037 / defence 1.276 | Palermo attack 1.269 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.313. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Pisa games / 46 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 23% | Palermo 55%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Palermo 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Palermo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 22% | Draw 23% | Palermo 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Pisa 1.32 / Palermo 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.037 / def 1.276 | Palermo attack 1.269 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Palermo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Palermo xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Palermo kick off?
Pisa vs Palermo kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Arena Garibaldi.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Pisa 3 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Pisa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi.
What competition is Pisa vs Palermo part of?
Pisa vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 22% chance of winning, Palermo a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Pisa and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 3W | Draws 2 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Pisa and Palermo in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
22%
4.47
23%
4.40
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.45
2.13
Palermo xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
12%
8.39
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
3%
37.52
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pisa and 2.13 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 6W 14D 26L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 27W 12D 7L from 46 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.70 PPG from 23 outings (4W 4D 15L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 8W 9D 6L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.72 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 6W 14D 26L in their last 46 games (0.70 PPG), while Palermo have gone 27W 12D 7L in their last 46 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.70 PPG; Palermo away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Pisa or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Palermo in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Palermo runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
From 7 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Pisa 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Palermo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 39%, Palermo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pisa) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 56% of games; Palermo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Pisa's recent matches and 56% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pisa's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Palermo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Palermo in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Palermo share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Palermo finished level at 3-3 at Arena Garibaldi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.32 xG and Palermo 2.13 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against Palermo attack 1.27 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 22% | Draw 23% | Palermo 55%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.