Pisa vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Palermo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Pisa, 1 for Palermo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Palermo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | Palermo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.12 xG and Palermo 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.772 / defence 1.080 | Palermo attack 1.148 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Pisa's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pisa games / 41 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 26% | Palermo 44%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Palermo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Pisa dominate the H2H record, yet Palermo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 26% | Palermo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Pisa 1.12 / Palermo 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.772 / def 1.080 | Palermo attack 1.148 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Palermo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Palermo kick off?
Pisa vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Palermo part of?
Pisa vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 29% chance of winning, Palermo a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pisa and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 3W | Draws 2 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Pisa and Palermo in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
29%
3.40
26%
3.81
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.56
1.44
Palermo xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pisa and 1.44 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.59 PPG on a 4W 12D 25L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 23W 11D 7L from 41 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.62 PPG from 21 outings (3W 4D 14L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 7W 8D 6L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.66 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 4W 12D 25L in their last 41 games (0.59 PPG), while Palermo have gone 23W 11D 7L in their last 41 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.62 PPG; Palermo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Pisa or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Palermo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Palermo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Pisa's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Pisa
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Palermo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 33%, Palermo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pisa) and 43% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 62% of games; Palermo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pisa's recent matches and 52% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pisa's recent games and 43% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Palermo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Palermo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.