Pisa vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Modena at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Modena encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season.

Modena have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Modena's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Modena are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pisa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Modena in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Modena hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Modena have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Modena half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 46% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Modena 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.49 xG and Modena 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.169 / defence 1.388 | Modena attack 1.123 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Pisa games / 48 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 25% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 2.17. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.

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