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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.68 xG and Modena 0.89 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Modena attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Modena 18%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Modena 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Modena's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.55 PPG, Modena 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights