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Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Mantova 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.11 xG and Mantova 1.03 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 61% | Draw 23% | Mantova 16%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights