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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Juve Stabia 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.51 xG and Juve Stabia 0.78 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Juve Stabia attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 53% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 17%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Juve Stabia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights