Pisa vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hellas Verona travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Hellas Verona have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.50 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Hellas Verona and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 46% versus Hellas Verona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.84 xG and Hellas Verona 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.165 / defence 1.384 | Hellas Verona attack 0.937 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Pisa games / 10 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Pisa 1.84 / Hellas Verona 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.165 / def 1.384 | Hellas Verona attack 0.937 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Hellas Verona xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Pisa vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Hellas Verona part of?
Pisa vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Pisa and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 3 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Pisa and Hellas Verona in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.17) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.97
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.44
1.60
Hellas Verona xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Pisa and 1.60 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 6W 15D 27L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona's form line: 7W 15D 26L from 48 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 0.69 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.74 PPG from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 8D 12L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 6W 15D 27L in their last 48 games (0.69 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 7W 15D 26L in their last 48 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Hellas Verona away?
Pisa's home record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.74 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Pisa
3
Draws
0
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Hellas Verona?
From 3 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-1 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 44%, Hellas Verona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pisa) and 56% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 52% of games; Hellas Verona in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Pisa's recent matches and 56% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pisa's recent games and 56% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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