Pisa vs Hellas Verona – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hellas Verona travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Hellas Verona have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 0.60 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hellas Verona in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Hellas Verona and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 43% versus Hellas Verona 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Hellas Verona 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.37 xG and Hellas Verona 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.772 / defence 1.404 | Hellas Verona attack 0.850 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.161. Pisa's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Pisa games / 4 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 38%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Hellas Verona 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Hellas Verona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Pisa 1.37 / Hellas Verona 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.772 / def 1.404 | Hellas Verona attack 0.850 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Hellas Verona xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Pisa vs Hellas Verona is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Hellas Verona part of?
Pisa vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 37% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pisa and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Hellas Verona?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Pisa and Hellas Verona in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.77) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.92
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.76
1.39
Hellas Verona xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pisa and 1.39 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.57 PPG on a 4W 12D 26L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hellas Verona's form line: 4W 13D 25L from 42 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 0.57 PPG, Hellas Verona on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.62 PPG from 21 outings (3W 4D 14L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 8D 11L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.79 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 games (0.57 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 4W 13D 25L in their last 42 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Hellas Verona away?
Hellas Verona's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.62 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Hellas Verona?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-0 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 38%, Hellas Verona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pisa) and 57% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 57% of games; Hellas Verona in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pisa's recent matches and 57% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pisa's recent games and 57% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.