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Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Frosinone 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Frosinone 1-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.47 xG and Frosinone 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 45% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 26%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights