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Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Cremonese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Cremonese 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.44 xG and Cremonese 1.56 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 1.27 / defence 0.91, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 34% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 39%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Cremonese's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pisa 1.56 PPG, Cremonese 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights