Pisa 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Pisa at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cosenza encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Pisa and Cosenza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cosenza (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cosenza's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 2 for Cosenza and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Pisa — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Cosenza — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 67% and Cosenza 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Cosenza 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.48 xG and Cosenza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.327 / defence 0.828 | Cosenza attack 1.085 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.095. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Pisa games / 52 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 46% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 22%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 4.55. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.

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