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Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Carrarese 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Carrarese 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 2.15 xG and Carrarese 0.65 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.43 / defence 0.89 against Carrarese attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pisa 70% | Draw 22% | Carrarese 8%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Carrarese 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pisa's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Carrarese's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights