Pisa 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Brescia travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.40 PPG, Brescia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pisa, 1 for Brescia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 72% and Brescia 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Brescia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.75 xG and Brescia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.303 / defence 1.012 | Brescia attack 0.918 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Pisa games / 43 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 52% | Draw 26% | Brescia 21%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Brescia 4.76. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 80% | Brescia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 52% | Draw 26% | Brescia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Pisa 1.75 / Brescia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.303 / def 1.012 | Brescia attack 0.918 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Pisa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Brescia xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Brescia kick off?
Pisa vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Pisa 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Pisa vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Brescia part of?
Pisa vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 52% chance of winning, Brescia a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pisa and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 3 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Pisa and Brescia in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Brescia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.30) and Brescia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.78
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.81
1.06
Brescia xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
26.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Pisa and 1.06 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 14W 15D 14L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brescia's form line: 14W 15D 14L from 43 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.33 PPG, Brescia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (8W 9D 5L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 6W 7D 9L from 22 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.21 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Brescia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 14W 15D 14L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 15D 14L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Brescia away?
Pisa's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.50 PPG; Brescia away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Brescia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2022, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Pisa
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Brescia?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Brescia?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 77%, Brescia at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Pisa) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Pisa's games and 59% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Pisa's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Brescia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Brescia in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Brescia 2-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.75 xG and Brescia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.30 / defence 1.01 against Brescia attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 52% | Draw 26% | Brescia 21%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Brescia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.33 PPG, Brescia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.