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Dominant Pescara run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Virtus Entella 3-0 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.59 xG and Virtus Entella 0.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Virtus Entella landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Virtus Entella attack 0.64 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 53% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 19%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 63%, Virtus Entella 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pescara 0.87 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights