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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pescara and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 6, as Pescara and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 1.70 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.18 / defence 1.27 against Sudtirol attack 1.14 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 100%, Sudtirol 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights