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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pescara and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara and Spezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.93 xG and Spezia 1.31 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pescara fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.00 / defence 1.22 against Spezia attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 50% | Draw 25% | Spezia 25%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 65%, Spezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pescara 0.92 PPG, Spezia 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights