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Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Pescara 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sampdoria beat Pescara 1-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.62 xG and Sampdoria 0.95 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sampdoria outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.08 / defence 1.14 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 51% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 21%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Sampdoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 67%, Sampdoria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pescara 0.97 PPG, Sampdoria 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights