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Shock result as Pescara defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.21 xG and Reggiana 1.40 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Reggiana attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 31% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 40%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 62%, Reggiana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights