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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pescara defy the odds to beat Palermo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Palermo 2-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.00 xG and Palermo 1.82 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Palermo attack 1.21 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 20% | Draw 24% | Palermo 56%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Pescara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 62%, Palermo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights