🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Pescara 0-2 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.07 xG and Modena 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pescara fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Modena attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 31% | Draw 29% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 68%, Modena 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights