🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Pescara and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 22, as Pescara and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.07 xG and Mantova 1.23 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Mantova attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 31% | Draw 30% | Mantova 39%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 67%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pescara 0.67 PPG, Mantova 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights