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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Pescara run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Empoli 4-0 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.56 xG and Empoli 1.36 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.98 / defence 1.42 against Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.31, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 39% | Draw 31% | Empoli 30%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 100%, Empoli 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Empoli's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Pescara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pescara scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights