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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cesena cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cesena beat Pescara 1-3 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.13 xG and Cesena 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cesena outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cesena attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 32% | Draw 30% | Cesena 38%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights