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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Pescara run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara beat Bari 4-0 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 1.17 xG and Bari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pescara beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Pescara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 64%, Bari 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Bari's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pescara 0.79 PPG, Bari 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pescara win broke the near-deadlock. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights