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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pescara and Avellino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pescara and Avellino finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pescara 2.00 xG and Avellino 1.44 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pescara fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pescara attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Avellino attack 1.03 / defence 1.32, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pescara 48% | Draw 27% | Avellino 25%, with Pescara to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pescara 78%, Avellino 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pescara's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.

Avellino's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights