Parma 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Parma take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Pisa meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 3W 7D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Parma against 1.60 for Pisa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Pisa — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 50% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 41% | Pisa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.89 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.982 / defence 0.896 | Pisa attack 1.040 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.020. Pisa's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Parma games / 64 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 31% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 30% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 31% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Parma 0.89 / Pisa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.982 / def 0.896 | Pisa attack 1.040 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pisa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Pisa kick off?
Parma vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Pisa?
Parma 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Parma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Pisa part of?
Parma vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 31% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Parma and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 0W | Draws 3 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Parma and Pisa in?
Parma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.98) and Pisa's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.04x) against Parma's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
35%
2.87
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Parma xG
Total xG
1.84
0.95
Pisa xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.1 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Parma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Parma and 0.95 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Parma's recent record stands at 21W 23D 20L from 64 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 24W 24D 16L across 64 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Parma against 1.50 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Parma have managed 12W 10D 10L from 32 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 13D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Pisa in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 21W 23D 20L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 24D 16L in their last 64 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Pisa away?
Parma's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.44 PPG; Pisa away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Parma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Parma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Parma
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Parma have won 4, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Pisa?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Parma and 31% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Pisa in 34%; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Parma's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Pisa tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Pisa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Parma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Parma 0-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 0.89 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Parma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 0.75, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 31% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 41%, Pisa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.34 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.