Palermo 3-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Palermo (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 9W 1D 0L at Renzo Barbera — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Palermo. A 1.60 PPG lead over Vicenza Virtus (2.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palermo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vicenza Virtus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 78% and Vicenza Virtus 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Palermo 67% | Vicenza Virtus 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 2.02 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.288 / defence 0.882 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.981 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Palermo games / 9 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 57% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 19%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Vicenza Virtus 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 60% | Vicenza Virtus 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 57% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Palermo 2.02 / Vicenza Virtus 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.288 / def 0.882 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.981 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Palermo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vicenza Virtus xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus?
Palermo 3 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 57% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palermo and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Vicenza Virtus in?
Palermo (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palermo's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.98x) against Palermo's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.19
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.13
1.11
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
39.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Palermo and 1.11 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Palermo have picked up 2.56 PPG on a 7W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.56 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.33 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 7W 2D 0L in their last 9 games (2.56 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Palermo's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 3.00 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since November 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Vicenza Virtus?
From 1 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Palermo 3-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Vicenza Virtus?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Palermo, 75% for Vicenza Virtus — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Palermo and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Palermo's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Palermo's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Palermo and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Vicenza Virtus 3-1 at Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 2.02 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.11 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.29 / defence 0.88 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 57% | Draw 24% | Vicenza Virtus 19%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 67%, Vicenza Virtus 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.