Palermo 0-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Venezia (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palermo face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Venezia at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Palermo have won 1, Venezia 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 0–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 57% and Venezia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 51% | Venezia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.57 xG and Venezia 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.180 / defence 1.229 | Venezia attack 1.149 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.166. Data: 76 Palermo games / 76 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 35% | Draw 26% | Venezia 38%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 50% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 35% | Draw 26% | Venezia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Palermo 1.57 / Venezia 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.180 / def 1.229 | Venezia attack 1.149 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Venezia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Venezia xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Venezia kick off?
Palermo vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Palermo 0 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Palermo vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Venezia part of?
Palermo vs Venezia is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 35% chance of winning, Venezia a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Palermo and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 3W.
What form are Palermo and Venezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.18) and Venezia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.81
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.22
1.65
Venezia xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Palermo and 1.65 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo come into this having played 77 games, going 27W 27D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.55 PPG from 77 outings (34W 17D 26L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.40 PPG, Venezia on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Palermo's home form reads 17W 12D 10L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.31 points per game from 39 outings (14W 9D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.57 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 64%.
Last 77 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Venezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 27W 27D 23L in their last 77 games (1.40 PPG), while Venezia have gone 34W 17D 26L in their last 77 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Venezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.62 PPG; Venezia away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Palermo
1
Draws
6
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Venezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Venezia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 51%, Venezia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Palermo) and 56% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 26% of games; Venezia in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Palermo's recent matches and 56% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Palermo's matches and 56% of Venezia's.
Do Palermo and Venezia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Palermo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 0-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.57 xG and Venezia 1.65 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palermo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against Venezia attack 1.15 / defence 1.07, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 35% | Draw 26% | Venezia 38%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 51%, Venezia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.40 PPG, Venezia 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.