Palermo vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palermo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 3 for Pisa and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 48% versus Pisa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Pisa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.69 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.329 / defence 0.891 | Pisa attack 1.055 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Palermo games / 10 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Pisa lead the H2H ledger, but Palermo carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Pisa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 28% | Pisa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Palermo 1.69 / Pisa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.329 / def 0.891 | Pisa attack 1.055 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Palermo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pisa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 48% chance of winning, Pisa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
Record (7 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 3 | Pisa 3W.
What form are Palermo and Pisa in?
Palermo (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.33x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.64
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.84
1.16
Pisa xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Palermo and 1.16 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 28W 13D 7L from 48 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 27L across 48 games — 0.69 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 19W 3D 1L from 23 games — 2.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 2W 9D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.92 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 28W 13D 7L in their last 48 games (2.02 PPG), while Pisa have gone 6W 15D 27L in their last 48 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.61 PPG; Pisa away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Palermo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pisa in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
From 7 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Pisa 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 39%, Pisa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Palermo and 70% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Pisa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Palermo's recent matches and 48% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Palermo's matches and 70% of Pisa's.
Do Palermo and Pisa tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Pisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.