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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pisa beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.03 xG and Pisa 0.74 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.95 / defence 0.72 against Pisa attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 39% | Draw 38% | Pisa 23%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pisa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Pisa 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.34 PPG, Pisa 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights