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Dominant Palermo run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Pescara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Pescara 5-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.51 xG and Pescara 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pescara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Pescara attack 0.84 / defence 1.39, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 47% | Draw 33% | Pescara 19%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 30%, Pescara 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pescara's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights