Palermo vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palermo and Padova meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Padova have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Palermo against 1.60 for Padova. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palermo lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Palermo — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Padova — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 42% versus Padova 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 46% | Padova 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.71 xG and Padova 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.108 / defence 0.808 | Padova attack 0.920 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.155. Data: 40 Palermo games / 41 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 58% | Draw 24% | Padova 19%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Padova 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 58% | Draw 24% | Padova 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Palermo 1.71 / Padova 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.108 / def 0.808 | Padova attack 0.920 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Palermo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Padova xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Padova kick off?
Palermo vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Padova part of?
Palermo vs Padova is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 58% chance of winning, Padova a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palermo and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 0 | Padova 0W.
What form are Palermo and Padova in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.11) and Padova's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.92x) against Palermo's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.21
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.57
0.86
Padova xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
29.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Palermo and 0.86 for Padova, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Padova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 41 games, going 23W 11D 7L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (13W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Padova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 16W 3D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Padova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 23W 11D 7L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Padova have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Padova away?
Palermo's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.55 PPG; Padova away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Palermo or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Padova in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Palermo
0
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Palermo have won 2, Padova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Padova 0-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Padova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Palermo) and 40% (Padova) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Padova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Palermo's recent matches and 40% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Padova tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Padova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.