Palermo 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 42%, yet in-form Cosenza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palermo vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Cosenza at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Cosenza's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Palermo's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Palermo, 2 for Cosenza and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 54% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 54% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.54 xG and Cosenza 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.083 / defence 1.089 | Cosenza attack 1.109 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Palermo games / 41 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cosenza (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 40% | Cosenza 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 42% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Palermo 1.54 / Cosenza 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.083 / def 1.089 | Cosenza attack 1.109 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Palermo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Cosenza xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cosenza kick off?
Palermo vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Palermo 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Palermo vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cosenza part of?
Palermo vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 42% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Palermo and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 2W.
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palermo's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.79
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.87
1.33
Cosenza xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Palermo and 1.33 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 15W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 12W 15D 14L from 41 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.34 PPG, Cosenza on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 6W 7D 7L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.22 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cosenza away?
Palermo's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.40 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Palermo or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cosenza in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 55%, Cosenza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Palermo) and 25% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Palermo's recent matches and 40% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Palermo's recent games and 25% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cosenza tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.54 xG and Cosenza 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Cosenza attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 42% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 32%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 54%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.34 PPG, Cosenza 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.