Palermo vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Palermo welcome Mantova to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 2.00 PPG, Mantova 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Mantova and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Mantova in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 44% versus Mantova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 46% | Mantova 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.72 xG and Mantova 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.248 / defence 0.871 | Mantova attack 1.051 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.133. Data: 43 Palermo games / 42 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 24% | Mantova 23%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Mantova 4.35. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 50% | Mantova 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 53% | Draw 24% | Mantova 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Palermo 1.72 / Mantova 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.248 / def 0.871 | Mantova attack 1.051 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Palermo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Mantova kick off?
Palermo vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Where is Palermo vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Mantova part of?
Palermo vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 53% chance of winning, Mantova a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palermo and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 3 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Palermo and Mantova in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palermo's attack rating (1.25) and Mantova's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.12
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.76
1.04
Mantova xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
24.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Palermo and 1.04 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 24W 12D 7L from 43 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 18L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mantova heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 17W 3D 1L from 21 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 5W 5D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Mantova in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 24W 12D 7L in their last 43 games (1.95 PPG), while Mantova have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Mantova away?
Palermo's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.57 PPG; Mantova away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Palermo or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Mantova in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
0
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Mantova have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Mantova?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 33%, Mantova 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Palermo) and 52% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Mantova in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 43% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Palermo's recent games and 52% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Mantova tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mantova in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.