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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palermo and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 31, as Palermo and Juve Stabia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.82 xG and Juve Stabia 0.64 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.33 / defence 0.75 against Juve Stabia attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 65% | Draw 24% | Juve Stabia 12%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.58 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights