Palermo 2-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Palermo welcome Carrarese to Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo at Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Palermo are significantly better at Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Palermo carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Palermo, 1 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Carrarese trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 44% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 47% | Carrarese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.42 xG and Carrarese 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.244 / defence 0.856 | Carrarese attack 0.868 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.343. Data: 45 Palermo games / 45 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 26%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 3.85. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 50% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 46% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Palermo 1.42 / Carrarese 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.244 / def 0.856 | Carrarese attack 0.868 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Palermo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Carrarese xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Carrarese kick off?
Palermo vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Palermo 2 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Palermo vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Carrarese part of?
Palermo vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 46% chance of winning, Carrarese a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palermo and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in?
Palermo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.24x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.62
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Carrarese xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Palermo and 1.00 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Palermo have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 26W 12D 7L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 12W 15D 18L from 45 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Carrarese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 2.57 PPG from 21 outings (17W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 11L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 26W 12D 7L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Carrarese away?
Palermo's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.57 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Palermo or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Carrarese in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Palermo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Palermo
1
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Carrarese?
From 5 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Carrarese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Carrarese?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 33%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Palermo) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 62% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Palermo's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Carrarese tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Carrarese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Carrarese 2-1 at Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.42 xG and Carrarese 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Carrarese attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 46% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 26%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 47%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.