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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Brescia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.17 xG and Brescia 0.90 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Brescia attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palermo 40% | Draw 33% | Brescia 27%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 52%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palermo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Brescia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Brescia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights