Palermo vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Palermo at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Benevento encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Palermo and Benevento meet at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Palermo at Stadio Renzo Barbera this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Benevento's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Palermo's favour (2.60 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Palermo, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Palermo 80% and Benevento 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 70% | Benevento 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.74 xG and Benevento 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.333 / defence 0.890 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.333 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Palermo games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Palermo 55% | Draw 27% | Benevento 18%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Benevento 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Palermo 60% | Benevento 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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