Padova vs Virtus Entella – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Padova welcome Virtus Entella to Stadio Euganeo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Padova — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Euganeo this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Virtus Entella have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.60 PPG versus Virtus Entella's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Padova have won 1, Virtus Entella 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Virtus Entella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Padova in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 51% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 39% | Virtus Entella 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.24 xG and Virtus Entella 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.894 / defence 0.965 | Virtus Entella attack 0.775 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Padova games / 41 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 45% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 26%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Virtus Entella 3.85. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Padova 50% | Virtus Entella 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 45% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Padova 1.24 / Virtus Entella 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.894 / def 0.965 | Virtus Entella attack 0.775 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Padova (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Virtus Entella xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Padova vs Virtus Entella is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Virtus Entella part of?
Padova vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 45% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Padova and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Virtus Entella?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 1W.
What form are Padova and Virtus Entella in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.89) and Virtus Entella's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Virtus Entella's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.42
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Padova xG
Total xG
2.11
0.87
Virtus Entella xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Padova and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Padova and 0.87 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Virtus Entella sit at 1.05 PPG from 41 outings (10W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.22 PPG, Virtus Entella on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Padova's home form reads 6W 8D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Virtus Entella have taken 0.40 points per game from 20 outings (1W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Virtus Entella away?
Padova's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.30 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Virtus Entella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Virtus Entella 1-0 Padova.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 60%, Virtus Entella 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Padova and 30% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Padova's recent matches and 35% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Padova's recent games and 30% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.