Padova vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Padova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Padova against 0.90 for Vicenza Virtus. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 50% and Vicenza Virtus 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 30% | Vicenza Virtus 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.43 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.859 / defence 0.945 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.991 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Padova games / 10 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 29%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Vicenza Virtus 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 30% | Vicenza Virtus 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Padova 1.43 / Vicenza Virtus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.859 / def 0.945 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.991 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Vicenza Virtus xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 41% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Padova and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.86) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.99x) against Padova's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Padova xG
Total xG
2.58
1.15
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Padova and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Padova and 1.15 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Padova have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 70%.
Defensively: Padova have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Padova's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.40 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Padova or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 10%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 40%, Vicenza Virtus 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Padova) and 80% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Padova keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Padova's games and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Padova's recent games and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.