Padova vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Padova at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Padova (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo.
Vicenza Virtus have collected 1.25 PPG across 4 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Padova. A 0.65 PPG lead over Vicenza Virtus (1.90 vs 1.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Padova 50% and Vicenza Virtus 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 25% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.64 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.869 / defence 0.958 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.836 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.209. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Padova games / 3 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 53% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 22%. Fair-value odds: Padova 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Vicenza Virtus 4.55. Padova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Padova 40% | Vicenza Virtus 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 53% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Padova 1.64 / Vicenza Virtus 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.869 / def 0.958 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.836 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Padova (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vicenza Virtus xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Padova vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 53% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Padova and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in?
Padova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Padova's attack rating (0.87) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.84x) against Padova's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.06
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Padova xG
Total xG
2.60
0.97
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Padova and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Padova and 0.97 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Padova have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 75%.
Defensively: Padova have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Padova or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Padova) and 75% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Padova keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Padova's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Padova's recent games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.