🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Venezia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Padova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Padova 0-2 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.38 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Padova fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 37% | Draw 33% | Venezia 30%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 42%, Venezia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Venezia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights