Padova 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Euganeo plays host to Padova versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Padova have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Comunale Euganeo — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Padova, 1 for Sudtirol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Padova 39% | Sudtirol 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.25 xG and Sudtirol 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.808 / defence 0.990 | Sudtirol attack 0.979 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.333. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Padova games / 46 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 35% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 37%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Sudtirol 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Padova 40% | Sudtirol 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Euganeo • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 35% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Padova 1.25 / Sudtirol 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.808 / def 0.990 | Sudtirol attack 0.979 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sudtirol xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Sudtirol kick off?
Padova vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Sudtirol?
Padova 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Padova vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Sudtirol part of?
Padova vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 35% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Padova and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Padova and Sudtirol in?
Padova (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.98x) against Padova's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.54
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Padova xG
Total xG
2.54
1.29
Sudtirol xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Padova and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Padova and 1.29 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Padova have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 11D 20L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 10W 22D 14L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Padova against 1.13 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 4W 11D 7L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 0.96 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 10W 22D 14L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Sudtirol away?
Padova's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.32 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 27 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Padova have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Padova
1
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Sudtirol?
From 3 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Sudtirol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2026, when Padova 2-0 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 59%, Sudtirol 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Padova) and 41% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Padova's games and 54% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Padova's recent games and 41% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Euganeo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.25 xG and Sudtirol 1.29 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Sudtirol attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 35% | Draw 28% | Sudtirol 37%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Padova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 39%, Sudtirol 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.