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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Padova and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 28, as Padova and Spezia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.08 xG and Spezia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Padova beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.86 / defence 1.13 against Spezia attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 33% | Draw 31% | Spezia 36%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 41%, Spezia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Padova 1.22 PPG, Spezia 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights