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Padova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Modena.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Padova beat Modena 2-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 0.85 xG and Modena 1.39 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Padova beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Modena attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 22% | Draw 29% | Modena 48%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 33%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Modena's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Padova 1.22 PPG, Modena 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights