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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Padova 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Padova 0-1 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 0.86 xG and Frosinone 1.03 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Padova fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.85 / defence 0.81, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Padova 26% | Draw 40% | Frosinone 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 50%, Frosinone 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights