Padova vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Empoli — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Empoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Padova are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Padova, 1 for Empoli and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Padova in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 38% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.25 xG and Empoli 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.858 / defence 0.945 | Empoli attack 0.903 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Padova games / 48 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 39% | Draw 32% | Empoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Empoli 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 30% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 39% | Draw 32% | Empoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Padova 1.25 / Empoli 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.858 / def 0.945 | Empoli attack 0.903 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Padova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Empoli kick off?
Padova vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Empoli part of?
Padova vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 39% chance of winning, Empoli a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Padova and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Padova and Empoli in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Padova's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.11
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Padova xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Empoli xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Padova and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Padova and 1.05 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Padova come into this having played 48 games, going 16W 12D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (11W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.25 PPG, Empoli on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Padova's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (5W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.19 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Empoli in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Empoli away?
Padova's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.33 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Empoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Padova
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 1, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Padova 1-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 54%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Padova) and 58% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Padova's recent matches and 54% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Padova's recent games and 58% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Empoli tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Empoli in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.