Padova vs Cremonese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Padova (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova at Stadio Euganeo this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Euganeo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Padova, 1.20 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Padova have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Padova lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Cremonese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 38% | Cremonese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.20 xG and Cremonese 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.862 / defence 0.945 | Cremonese attack 0.774 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Padova games / 10 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 26%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Cremonese 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 30% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 41% | Draw 33% | Cremonese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Padova 1.20 / Cremonese 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.862 / def 0.945 | Cremonese attack 0.774 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cremonese xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Cremonese kick off?
Padova vs Cremonese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Cremonese part of?
Padova vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 41% chance of winning, Cremonese a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Padova and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Padova and Cremonese in?
Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Padova's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.77x) against Padova's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
41%
2.45
33%
2.99
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Padova xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Cremonese xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Padova and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Padova and 0.90 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Padova's recent record stands at 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 24L across 48 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Padova against 0.96 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Padova have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Cremonese away?
Padova's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.33 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Padova or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cremonese in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Padova
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Cremonese?
From 1 meetings on record, Padova have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Cremonese 3-1 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 54%, Cremonese 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Padova) and 42% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Padova's recent matches and 33% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Padova vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Padova's recent games and 42% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Cremonese tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.