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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Padova and Avellino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 6, as Padova and Avellino drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.41 xG and Avellino 1.36 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Avellino attack 1.09 / defence 1.27, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Padova 35% | Draw 33% | Avellino 33%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 40%, Avellino 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Padova's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Avellino's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Avellino arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Padova scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights