Cosenza 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Spezia have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cosenza, 1.70 for Spezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 0 for Spezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Spezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.44 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.022 / defence 0.933 | Spezia attack 1.050 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.127. Data: 40 Cosenza games / 40 Spezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 70% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 44% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Cosenza 1.44 / Spezia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.022 / def 0.933 | Spezia attack 1.050 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Spezia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Spezia kick off?
Cosenza vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Spezia?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Cosenza vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Spezia part of?
Cosenza vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 44% chance of winning, Spezia a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 2 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Spezia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Spezia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.02x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (1.05x) against Cosenza's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.54
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.55
1.10
Spezia xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.10 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 12W 14D 14L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spezia's form line: 10W 18D 12L from 40 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Cosenza against 1.20 for Spezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 3W 10D 7L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Spezia have gone 10W 18D 12L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Spezia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.25 PPG; Spezia away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Spezia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cosenza
3
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Spezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Spezia 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 65%, Spezia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cosenza and 60% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Spezia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cosenza's games and 55% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cosenza's matches and 60% of Spezia's.
Do Cosenza and Spezia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Spezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 3, as Cosenza and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.44 xG and Spezia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Spezia attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 44% | Draw 28% | Spezia 28%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.25 PPG, Spezia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.