Cosenza 0-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Cosenza have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cosenza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sassuolo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Sassuolo trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 54% versus Sassuolo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 42% | Sassuolo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.14 xG and Sassuolo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.975 / defence 0.798 | Sassuolo attack 0.960 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.139. Cosenza's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Cosenza games / 5 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 34% | Sassuolo 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Sassuolo 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 60% | Sassuolo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 40% | Draw 34% | Sassuolo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cosenza 1.14 / Sassuolo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.975 / def 0.798 | Sassuolo attack 0.960 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sassuolo xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Sassuolo kick off?
Cosenza vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sassuolo?
Cosenza 0 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Cosenza vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sassuolo part of?
Cosenza vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 40% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cosenza and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Sassuolo in?
Cosenza (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.96
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.01
0.87
Sassuolo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.87 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cosenza's recent record stands at 13W 16D 14L from 43 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 23L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sassuolo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.16 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 13W 16D 14L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 9W 11D 23L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sassuolo away?
Cosenza's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.32 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
0
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Sassuolo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Sassuolo 2-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 64%, Sassuolo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cosenza) and 54% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sassuolo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cosenza's games and 64% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Cosenza's matches and 54% of Sassuolo's.
Do Cosenza and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat Cosenza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Cosenza 0-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.14 xG and Sassuolo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.97 / defence 0.80 against Sassuolo attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 40% | Draw 34% | Sassuolo 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sassuolo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 42%, Sassuolo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sassuolo's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Sassuolo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.