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Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cosenza beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.92 xG and Reggiana 1.09 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.72 / defence 1.12 against Reggiana attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cosenza 28% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 37%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 39%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.11 PPG, Reggiana 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights